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Introduction to Probability Management

  • Job DurationedX
  • Job Duration10 weeks long, 1-5 hours a week
  • Job DurationFree Online Course (Audit)

Project detail


This course assumes that you are comfortable with Microsoft Excel, but you do not need training in statistics. If you wish to receive a verified certificate, you must download the free SIPmath™ Modeler Tools for Excel from nonprofit, and it is recommended that you procure The Flaw of Averages: Why we Underestimate Risk in the Face of Uncertainty, John Wiley & Sons, either the 1st or 2nd Edition.


Section 1: Probability Management Basics

  • Post Traumatic Statistics Disorder (PTSD)
  • The Flaw of Averages
  • The Arithmetic of Uncertainty
  • Limbic Analytics: Connecting the Seat of the Intellect to the Seat of the Pants
  • The Hindu/Arabic Numerals of Uncertainty
  • The Probability Power Grid
  • Data Table Simulation in Excel

Section 2: The Five Mindles of Uncertainty

A MINDle lets you grasp something with your mind as a HANDle lets you grasp something with your hand. Understanding the arithmetic of uncertainty requires grasping five concepts beyond the operations of standard arithmetic. They are:

  • Risk vs. Uncertainty
  • Uncertain Numbers
  • Combinations of Uncertainties
  • Plans Based on Uncertainties
  • Interrelated Uncertainties

Section 3: Introduction to Applications

  • Nonlinear cost functions
  • Building a Risk Model
  • Estimating distributions from forecasts

Section 4: The Human Element

The PTSD picked up in a statistics class may be addressed through the following concepts:

  • The permission to be uncertain
  • Unambiguous Uncertainty
  • Limbic Analytics

Languages required